About

Arya Patel

I'm Arya Patel — the analyst behind Arya Explains.

Every morning I track oil prices, tanker movements and geopolitics, and translate the chaos into plain numbers: what moved, by how much, and what it means for your fuel bill and your money.

WHAT YOU GET HERE
• Brent & WTI prices every morning, with the one reason they moved
• The Hormuz Risk Index — my daily 0–100 score for the world's most important oil chokepoint
• The Hormuz Tracker — ships, flows and tanker rates through the strait
• Scenario playbooks for oil shocks — what happens next, in order

HOW I WORK
Every number on this site is sourced — Reuters, the EIA, UKMTO, and live shipping data. The Hormuz Risk Index uses a fixed, published methodology (flows 40 pts, tanker rates 20, Brent stress 15, incidents 25) — the formula never changes quietly, so the score means the same thing every day.

Arya Explains is independent: no sponsors, no oil money, no agenda. Updated every morning by 7 AM ET.

Contact: arya@aryaexplains.com

Get the free daily brief: https://40802.substack.com

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