Hormuz Risk Index: 49/100 — ELEVATED (October 9, 2026)

Today's Hormuz Risk Index is 49 out of 100 — ELEVATED. The index scores four things: tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz versus the normal 20 million barrels a day (40 points), tanker-rate stress (20 points), Brent price stress (15 points), and security incidents over the last 7 days (25 points). Today's breakdown: flows 19.8, tanker rates 19.6 (VLCC rates near $1.4M/day), Brent 9.3 (Brent at $103), incidents 0. Iran is reviewing a 7-day Hormuz reopening plan — if it holds, this index falls fast. Updated daily.

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